SPX and Nasdaq are under the 20-day. Here’s what’s still holding up.

SPX and Nasdaq are under the 20-day. Here's what's still holding up.

The market's below the 20-day — I cut risk in half

📰 In This Issue…

The market is in a heavy pullback. When the SPX and Nasdaq are trading below their 20-day moving averages, I cut my risk to half of what I'd normally take.

Here's why: in this environment, the odds of failure are high — even great setups can fail ~90% of the time. Honestly, waiting it out is usually the safest play: sit on your hands and watch for the stocks that hold up while everything else crumbles. Those are the names that lead when the market turns.

That said, there are still a few setups worth watching — traded small, with tight risk. Here's what's on my radar.

Best Stocks To Buy Today

$DELL ( ▲ 15.81% ) – Long term

Who they are: Dell makes PCs, servers, storage, and AI infrastructure — a direct beneficiary of the enterprise AI build-out.

The Monthly/Weekly View: A 14-week flat base. Flat bases signal no selling — supply has dried up.

The Daily View: A VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern) with strong earnings on heavy volume (~600% surge) and strong institutional support. Shakeouts along the way.

The Trigger: Strong fundamentals (revenue, ROE, EPS growth), held up in a weak market, strong AI presence, and a market leader. Accumulate on the shakeouts and 20-Day MA pullbacks.

💡 Tip: Use $DLLL ( ▲ 31.58% ) for 2x leveraged exposure.

Dell Monthly

DELL Daily

🦅 Long-Term Trades — Fundamentally Strong Companies

These names have built massive bases (>3 months), so they're primed for long, big moves. This list focuses on fundamentally sound companies.

$DAVE ( ▲ 9.46% ) – Swing or Long

Who they are: Dave is a US fintech / neobank riding the same wave lifting $HOOD ( ▲ 3.36% )   and $SOFI ( ▲ 4.63% )  

The Monthly/Weekly View: An 11-month base — big base, big moves — looking to break to all-time highs. A weekly Cup and Handle with a tight handle, coiling to break above $300 for the first time (stocks like round numbers — Livingstone's rules).

The Daily View: First pullback to the 50-Day MA after breaking out of the 11-month base — time to add or re-enter.

The Trigger: Strong, growing fundamentals and a recovering financial sector, with $HOOD and $SOFI leading fintech back.

Dave monthly and Daily

Dave Daily

🎲 Long-Term Trades — Speculative

Massive bases (>3 months), primed for big moves. These companies may not be profitable yet, but the technical structure promises upside.

$OSCR ( ▲ 1.68% ) – Long term

Who they are: Oscar Health is a technology-driven health-insurance company — profitless and higher-risk, hence speculative.

The Setup: Forming a 10-week jagged base — a trickier play. The right approach is to build slowly. I'd risk just 0.1% of my account on this 50-Day MA pullback — and only buy once we move above the high of the bouncing candle (let the bounce confirm before committing).

OSCR Monthly

OSCR Daily

⚡ Swing Trades

Smaller bases (4–6 weeks, under 4 months), primed for tighter swing trades.

Who they are: Sandisk is a flash-memory / storage maker (spun out of Western Digital) — one of the strongest names on the market right now.

The Monthly/Weekly View: A 10-week base — good for a swing.

The Daily View: Pullback to the 50-Day MA (a great spot to add) with coiling VCP action.

The Trigger: Accelerating earnings (recent quarters +661%, +283%, +29,915%).

Daily

$MU ( ▲ 2.43% ) – Swing

Who they are: Micron is a leading memory-chip maker (DRAM/NAND) — a core AI-memory beneficiary and one of the market's strongest names.

The Monthly/Weekly View: A 10-week base — good for a swing.

The Daily View: Pullback to the 50-Day MA (great time to add) with coiling VCP action.

The Trigger: Accelerating earnings (recent quarters +176%, +762%, +1,380%).

MU Weekly and Daily

MU Daily

Who they are: Robinhood is a commission-free brokerage / fintech platform — a leader in the recovering financial sector.

The Setup: Pullback to the 20-Day MA — a great spot to add.

HOOD

$AMZN ( ▲ 0.02% ) – Swing trade

Who they are: Amazon is the e-commerce and AWS cloud giant — a mega-cap leader.

The Setup: Bounce off the 50-Day MA.

AMZN Daily

📊 Trading Framework Reminder

Remember: Every long-term investment alert can also be played as a swing trade. When shorting, risk management is even more critical.

🦅 Long-Term Investors (3-12 Month Holds)

  • Entry: Full position on breakdown.

  • Profit Taking: Cover 1/4 to 1/5 at Goal 1.

  • Exit Signal: Close above 20-day EMA (your trend guide) or 50-day EMA.

  • Why? Strong moves are hard to time at the bottom, but the 20EMA acts as a reliable trend filter.

⚡ Swing Traders (2-6 Week Holds)

  • Entry: Full position on breakdown.

  • Profit Taking: Cover 1/3 at Goal 1.

  • Final Exit: Cover the remainder at Goal 2.

💬 How Did We Do?

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Regards,

Valentine

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