If you're a long-term investor, feel free to skip this trade — or stick around and learn a new entry tactic. We’re playing with inverse ETFs here to avoid borrow fees. 👀

This one’s interesting.

We’re looking to short the 20-Year Treasury (TLT) because we’re seeing a strong short setup.

What’s the Setup?

We have:

• A long consolidation (12 weeks)

• Followed by a tight, short inverse consolidation

This is a strong technical signal. Historically, when a base lasts more than 6 weeks, it’s often followed by a 1–2 week reaction move.

Quick Note on Shorting

Shorting usually involves borrowing shares, and sometimes you’ll get hit with borrow fees (usually small, but still annoying). To skip that, you can go long on an inverse ETF instead — it’ll mirror the move without the borrow hassle.

Remember big consolidations produce bigger moves.

TLT = 20-Year Treasury Bonds

So, we’ll look at TMV, the inverse ETF of TLT. It gives us the same setup, just flipped.

Exit Strategy

Simple Exit (Beginner-Friendly):

• Sell at pre-defined goals (Goal 1 and Goal 2).

Advanced Exit (What I’ll Be Doing):
Since the base is 12 weeks long, I’ll manage this more like a swing-to-position trade.

• Sell ¼ at 1R (1x risk)

• Hold the rest using the 20 EMA as a dynamic guide:

  • Stay in the trade as long as TMV closes above the 20 EMA

  • Exit remaining position on a close below the 20 EMA

This is a free trade idea.
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Regards,
Valentine

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